Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves odds, picks and prediction

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The Toronto Raptors (14-15) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (7-22) Friday at the Target Center for a 9 p.m. tip-off. Below, we analyze the Raptors-Timberwolves NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Toronto whooped up on the Milwaukee Bucks by double-digits in back-to-back games this week following a 116-112 loss at the Timberwolves on Valentine’s Day. After a slow start, the Raptors are playing much better as winners in seven of their last 10 games (7-3 ATS).

Minnesota’s victory over Toronto last weekend was its only win in the last seven games. The Timberwolves have lost two straight at home against the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana pacers entering Friday. They failed to cover in both by a combined 2.5 points.

Raptors at Timberwolves: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Raptors -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Timberwolves +120 (bet $100 to win $100120
Against the spread/ATS: Raptors -2.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Raptors at Timberwolves: Key injuries

Raptors

PG Kyle Lowry (ankle) questionable

Timberwolves

PF Jarrett Culver (ankle) out
PG D’Angelo Russell (knee) out

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Raptors at Timberwolves: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Raptors 121, Timberwolves 114

Money line (ML)

PASS with a lean on Raptors (-145). One could make the argument for taking the Raptors straight-up given their bankroll, but I’d rather lay the points and/or put Toronto’s money line in a parlay.

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Against the spread (ATS)

This is a theory I’ve been workshopping off the record, but, the absence of Kyle Lowry could be addition by subtraction for the Raptors, who are 4-0 with a 15-point average margin of victory in those games.

Lowry missed Toronto’s beatdown of Milwaukee last night, and his replacement SG Norman Powell flourished. In fact, Powell is averaging career-highs in points per game (16.7 ppg) and 3-point shooting (42.3%) and has scored 20 or more in every game Lowry has missed.

Lastly, since the beginning of last season, the Timberwolves are 1-12-1 ATS with a minus-7.8 spread differential in games with a rest advantage. Over that same time span, the Raptors have the third-highest winning percentage with a plus-2.7 spread differential as a road favorite.

I’m on the RAPTORS -2.5 (-110) for a half-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

The T-Wolves’ offense is trending up: PG Ricky Rubio running the show for SG Malik Beasley who’s averaging a career-high 20.9 PPG, big Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s a lock for 20-10 every night and No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards, who has scored 20 or more four times this month.

Also, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Minnesota attempts the fifth-highest rate of field goals at the rim and the 10th-highest rate of corner threes. These are two weak spots for a Toronto defense that’s ranked 18th in opponent’s shooting percentage at the rim and 24th in corner-three defense.

TAKE OVER 225.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.

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Also see: 

MVP Race: Rudy Gobert enters the Top 10 (Hoops Hype)
Dwyane Wade offered high praise for No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards (Rookie Wire)

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