Top Game to Bet: Raptors at Pacers (-1.5)
This is the first game of the day, meaning everyone will want a piece of this Sunday matinee before the NFL Conference Championship games start. When you see the Raptors and Pacers meet, you can expect one thing, low-scoring.
The Under has gone 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Indiana. Toronto hasn’t been very strong offensively this season. The Under is 5-2 in Raptors last seven overall and in the last seven as a road dog.
Since Oladipo‘s trade, the Pacers allow 111.4 points per game (17th) and the Raptors rank 7th at 108.7 points per game. Indiana has struggled offensively as well, averaging 108.6 points per game (21st), while Toronto isn’t far off at 109.2 during that span.
With both teams struggling scoring and Toronto playing their second back-to-back situation, I like the Under. The Pacers have had two back-to-backs and in the first game, both meetings went Over. However, Oladipo played in both games. Indiana’s second game of the back-to-backs has been low-scoring totals of 199 and 215. Toronto’s lone back-to-back featured a 106-105 finish in the first outing and 112-111 in the second.
A key player and prop that caught my attention is Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Points (-110). Sabonis is averaging 21.7 points per game on the season and 21.3 in his last 10 games. The Raptors are not nearly as prominent on the defensive end of the floor as a young ago. Defending opposing big men have been the challenge.
Toronto allows the third-most points per game to power forwards (23.43) on the season. Sabonis has surpassed 20 points in two of his last four games and scored 18 and 19 in the two Unders. He’s gone Over in five of his previous eight outings and averaged 21.8 at home. Sabonis has visited the free-throw line at least four times in his last eight games and five or more in five-of-eight.
Since Victor Oladipo was traded to Houston, Sabonis has averaged 20.6 points with two Overs and three Unders on 18, 18 and 19 points. Sabonis will be the main offensive driving force along with Malcolm Brogdon for Indiana, and both are going to be reliable nightly options moving forward.
Game Pick: Sabonis Over 20.5 Points (2u), Pacers-Raptors Under 219 (1u)
Top Team to Fade: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Clippers have won six-straight games and are contending with the Lakers for the NBA’s best team. The spread for this is a large -12.5, which is tough to bet on, considering the Clippers won by 14 on Friday.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard did their usual bidding and Nicolas Batum gets take No. 2 at his former team today. One of the key players I like to go Under his total and be a fly on the wall for this meeting is Patrick Beverley. He scored one point, recorded two assists and a ridiculous eight rebounds in his last game. He’s gone Under this 16.5 (-121) PRA total in five of the past seven games overall and his 8.5-point (-139) total too.
Matched up with Oklahoma City, Beverley should be focused on playing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensively more than scoring. His eight rebounds were the second-most on the season and his single-point was the lowest. He only attempted two shots versus the Thunder in 30 minutes and there’s not much to expect from him in the second meeting.
The Thunder allow the third-fewest points per game to point guards (20.12). His point prop is 8.5 on Draftkings, which is far too high versus them. His PRA total is 16.5, which I will take a stab on too.
The Under between the two teams is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and the Thunder are 2-5 ATS in the previous seven. I could see another blowout with a low-scoring for both or the Thunder.
Bet Locked In: Pat Beverley Under 16.5 PRA (0.5u), Under 8.5 Points (0.5u)
Sunday Betting Notes
Hornets at Magic: Magic -1.5
In this matchup, my attention automatically goes to Evan Fournier Over 21.5 PRA (-167). While the odds are terrible, Fournier has been outproducing this number since he came back from injury.
Fournier did 27 PRA and 39 PRA on 24 and 26 points score in his last two games. The Hornets allow the most assists per game to shooting guards (5.96) and the 11th most to small forwards (4.19). In regards to rebounds and points, Charlotte ranks middle of the pact.
Fournier attempted 14 and 21 field goal attempts in his past two games in addition to eight and nine triples. In Charlotte’s last three games, they have allowed opponents to chuck up three-pointers at will. At 47.3 three-pointers allowed Over the previous three, that ranks last in the league, and the 39.4% hit-rate is 24th during that span.
If Fournier is shooting threes, I like the chances he goes Over his total today as the Magic have welcomed him back with open arms. Because this is -167 on Draftkings, I would wait to get better odds at 23.5 or 24.5 or parlay that with Loyola-Chicago Moneyline from my CBB article. That’s +104 odds.
The Hornets are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. The Over has gone 9-3 in Orlando’s last 12 meetings, which is positive for Fournier’s Overs.
Bet Locked In: Fournier Over 21.5 PRA and Loyola-Chicago ML (1u)
Cavaliers at Celtics: Under 214
The Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Boston and this seems like a very sharp line. The Cavs are on a hot streak right now, and betting against them isn’t wise, but Boston is coming off three-straight losses and get a quick home match with Cleveland. Boston’s spread has steadily dropped and so has the Under as the morning has progressed.
The injury report is a must-watch before betting on this matchup. A player to watch for is Tristan Thompson. He hasn’t made much of an impact offensively, and matched up against Andre Drummond makes him another fade. The Cavs are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings in Boston and 1-3-1 in the previous five games overall.
Hawks at Bucks: Bucks -8.5
The Hawks injury report has ravaged all season long, now Trae Young and De’Andre Hunter are the latest as both are listed questionable. Atlanta received Bogdan Bogdanovic back, which is a boost, but versus Milwaukee, it may not be enough if Hunter or Young sit.
Clint Capela has been a monster lately, grabbing 15 or more rebounds in four straight and 13 or more in all four. He also had 27 points, 26 rebounds and five blocks two games ago. If the injury report confirms Young out, look for Capela to get his. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Knicks at Blazers: Over/Under 214
Overall, the Knicks are 3-1 SU in their last four games, having lost to the Kings in the previous outing. Their luck hasn’t fared well when visiting Portland as they have gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Under has gone 8-1 in the previous nine meetings.
Portland is playing without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, which is proving to be a daunting task. The Blazers have gone 1-2 SU in the past three games allowing 106 or more, including 125 in the last game. The total is awfully low even though the Under has been a winner often in this series.