SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their championship odds are 80/1, 1.2% (#11 best). Even with the juice, the Raptors are a good betting value. Their 3.5% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #9 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the East at 20/1, 4.8%. Their sim chance is 10.9%. They are projected to win 49 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 46. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (25.8%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on the money lines, the Raptors had an expected win percentage of 59% after 4 games. At 3-1, they are beating expectations. Money line bettors backing them would be up 54 units on the season. They are 3-1 against the spread for a 190 profit. Their over-under record is 2-2. Based on last season’s game odds they ‘should have had’ 55.2 wins. Their 58-24 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They were not good against the spread going 37-44-1 (-1140 loss). They went over 45 times and came in under 35 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Detroit Pistons. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.5% (#5 in League). They average 114.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.4. On the road they average 113.7 (111.9 expected), and at home 115.1 ppg (115 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.1 true FG% (#3 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 51.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 108.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.9. They are allowing 109.1 (109 expected) on the road, and at home 107.6 ppg (106.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.4 per game (#18 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.3 per game (#8 in league).
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Pascal Siakam who is projected to be the #7 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Pascal Siakam||100||7||Jimmy Butler||LaMarcus Aldridge|
|Kyle Lowry||100||15||Donovan Mitchell||Jrue Holiday|
|Marc Gasol||93||8||Al Horford||Montrezl Harrell|
|Fred VanVleet||95||37||Terry Rozier||Jaylen Brown|
|Serge Ibaka||84||54||Dario Saric||Brandon Clarke|
|OG Anunoby||75||58||Eric Paschall||Kevin Knox|
|Terence Davis||1||114||David Nwaba||Kyle Korver|
|Norman Powell||7||105||James Ennis||Christian Wood|
|Rondae Hollis-Jefferson||4||110||Marko Guduric||Grant Williams|
|Patrick McCaw||0||126||Thabo Sefolosha||Michael Porter Jr.|