NBA Outlook: Bet on the Toronto Raptors to Win the Championship at 80/1, 1.2%…Projected to Finish Ahead of Pacers

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 80/1, 1.2% (#11 best). Even with the juice, the Raptors are a good betting value. Their 3.5% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #9 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the East at 20/1, 4.8%. Their sim chance is 10.9%. They are projected to win 49 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 46. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (25.8%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NBA games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports’ Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on the money lines, the Raptors had an expected win percentage of 59% after 4 games. At 3-1, they are beating expectations. Money line bettors backing them would be up 54 units on the season. They are 3-1 against the spread for a 190 profit. Their over-under record is 2-2. Based on last season’s game odds they ‘should have had’ 55.2 wins. Their 58-24 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They were not good against the spread going 37-44-1 (-1140 loss). They went over 45 times and came in under 35 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Detroit Pistons. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENT SIM% H2H WL H2H ATS H2H OU
10/30 DET 69% 0-3 0-3 2-1
11/2 MIL 50% 5-5 5-5 5-5
11/6 SAC 80% 2-0 1-0-1 0-2
11/8 NO 81% 2-1 2-1 3-0
11/10 LAL 46% 2-0 2-0 0-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.5% (#5 in League). They average 114.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.4. On the road they average 113.7 (111.9 expected), and at home 115.1 ppg (115 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.1 true FG% (#3 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 51.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 108.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.9. They are allowing 109.1 (109 expected) on the road, and at home 107.6 ppg (106.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.4 per game (#18 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.3 per game (#8 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Pascal Siakam who is projected to be the #7 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYER OWN% RANK BETTER OPTION BETTER THAN
Pascal Siakam 100 7 Jimmy Butler LaMarcus Aldridge
Kyle Lowry 100 15 Donovan Mitchell Jrue Holiday
Marc Gasol 93 8 Al Horford Montrezl Harrell
Fred VanVleet 95 37 Terry Rozier Jaylen Brown
Serge Ibaka 84 54 Dario Saric Brandon Clarke
OG Anunoby 75 58 Eric Paschall Kevin Knox
Terence Davis 1 114 David Nwaba Kyle Korver
Norman Powell 7 105 James Ennis Christian Wood
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 4 110 Marko Guduric Grant Williams
Patrick McCaw 0 126 Thabo Sefolosha Michael Porter Jr.