Maple Leafs vs Oilers 03/03/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

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by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

Some trends suggest that the Toronto Maple Leafs can keep the closer mentality they have taken on while waiting for Frederik Andersen and Auston Matthews to get healthy. The Maple Leafs are slight -115 favourites and the Edmonton Oilers are -105 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Maple Leafs are 6-1 in their last seven games as a favourite on the road, and the total has gone UNDER at online sports betting sites in their last four games overall. The total has also gone UNDER in eight of their last 11 games in March. Toronto, which visits the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday, is 16-9 in its last 25 games when it was also slated to play the following day. Edmonton is 7-13 in its last 20 games as an underdog at home.

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Maple Leafs vs Oilers | OddsShark Matchup Report

The Maple Leafs beat the Oilers 3-0 on Monday after notching a 4-0 win against them last Saturday. Edmonton and star Connor McDavid have been blanked two games in a row in spite of earning edges in shots-for share (51.9 percent), expected goals-for percentage (53.0) and high-danger chances share (59.7) in the five-on-five phase against Toronto, per Natural Stat Trick. Toronto has controlled the head-to-head matchup with a 5-2-1 record in the last eight games and a 17-9 edge in five-on-five goals. The Maple Leafs are nine-for-20 on the power play and the Oilers are seven-for-25.  (All advanced stats reflect score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Maple Leafs, who are 17-4-2, have been playing without both Matthews (hand) and Andersen (lower-body injury). The John Tavares-Joe Thornton-Mitch Marner and Alex Kerfoot-Alexander Barabanov-William Nylander lines will probably be tasked with trying to produce within a team-defense mindset. Nylander is on a three-game goal streak. Toronto generated only 1.10 expected goals (xGF) on Monday, but they are 5-1 this season following a game with under 1.50 xGF.

Toronto is 12th in the 31-team NHL in share of shots for (50.4 percent), eighth in xGF% (52.1) and 11th in high-danger chances share (51.9). The Maple Leafs are second in goal scoring (3.52 per game) and fourth in goals against (2.39), Their power play is ranked second (31.9 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 11th (80.6).

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Injuries to Andersen and No. 2 goalie Jack Campbell (leg) means Michael Hutchinson is expected to start in goal. Hutchinson is 3-1-0 with a 1.77 goals-against average and .943 save percentage in four games this season, and MoneyPuck’s stats show he has rated well at rebound control. Hutchinson is 2-1-0 with a 2.13 GAA and .907 save percentage in five career games against the Oilers.

The Oilers, who are 14-10-0, are getting an addition to an attack which has not scored an even-strength goal in the team’s last three games. Left wing James Neal (undisclosed) practiced Tuesday on a line with McDavid and right wing Jesse Puljujarvi, which also means No. 2 center Leon Draisaitl has received a linemate upgrade with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamomoto as his wings. Bettors will have to decide whether they trust the changes to pay off for the Oilers. McDavid came back from a bad night last Saturday to lead Edmonton in expected goals and shots on goal on Monday.

Edmonton is 20th in share of shots for (48.8 percent), 14th in xGF% (50.8) and 12th in high-danger chances share (51.8). The Oilers are sixth in goal scoring (3.29 per game) and 20th in goals against (3.00), Their power play is ranked ninth (25.9 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 19th (77.3).

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Mike Smith, who is 6-1-0 with a 1.87 GAA and .938 save percentage, is projected to start after netminding partner Mikko Koskinen lasted only one period on Monday. MoneyPuck rates Smith fourth in the NHL in save percentage above expected. Smith is 9-4-3 with a 2.35 GAA and .922 save percentage in 17 games against Toronto.

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