Maple Leafs vs Oilers 01/28/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

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by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

There is a clear demarcation regarding the moneyline and the results the Toronto Maple Leafs get as a road favourite. The Maple Leafs are a -130 away favourite against the +110 home underdog Edmonton Oilers with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Since Sheldon Keefe became their head coach in November 2019, Toronto is 8-4 as an away favourite of -110 to -130 on the moneyline at sports betting sites. Four of the six most recent matchups in that sample have finished OVER. The Maple Leafs are just 7-7 in 14 games under Keefe when they go -131 or deeper into minus money. For their part, the Oilers are 4-4 in their last eight games as an underdog at home.

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Maple Leafs vs Oilers | OddsShark Matchup Report

The two North Division clubs, who will play again at Rogers Place on Saturday, split two games at Toronto last week. But the Maple Leafs are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Edmonton. The total has only gone OVER twice in the last six matchups.

The Maple Leafs are 6-2-0 this season. According to Natural Stat Trick, Toronto’s actual goals against have been lower than their expected goals against (five-on-five play only) for four consecutive games, which is freeing up centers Auston Matthews and John Tavares and right wing Mitch Marner to attack offensively. Toronto is 12th in shot-attempt percentage (52.7) and 14th in shots-for percentage (51.1), but are just 21st  (47.7) in share of high-danger chances.

That leaves them susceptible against a dialed-in goalie, but Edmonton has lacked that element lately. Toronto is 11th in the 31-team NHL in goals per game (3.25) and 13th in goals against (2.75). Thanks in big part to Marner and Tavares, Toronto has the league’s second-ranked power play (41.7) per cent, while the penalty killing unit ranks 14th (80.0).

Frederik Andersen is unlikely to get a night off any time soon since reliable backup goalie Jack Campbell (leg) is out for several weeks. Andersen is 4-2-0 this season with a 2.84 goals-against average and .896 save percentage. Career-wise, Andersen is 13-1-1 with a 2.21 GAA and .928 save percentage in 16 games against Edmonton.

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The Oilers are 3-5-0 and have lost two in a row with the total going OVER in both games. The stats bear out the impression that Edmonton is asking superstar centers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to do a lot with relatively little offensive zone time in five-on-five situations. At even and full strength, the Oilers rank 26th in shot attempts (46.5 percent) and 19th in shots for (48.6) but are ninth in share of high-danger chances (53.6).

Edmonton can pounce on a team that is due for an off night. Overall, the Oilers are 17th in goal scoring (2.88 per game) and 26th in goals against (3.63). Their power play has moved up to 19th (17.9 percent), while the penalty killing unit ranks 20th (76.0).

Mikko Koskinen, who is 3-5-0 with a 3.42 GAA and .900 save percentage, is the only goalie who has played for Edmonton this season due to the absence of veteran Mike Smith. Koskinen is 1-4-0 with a 3.68 GAA and .874 save percentage in five games against Toronto. Backup goalie Stuart Skinner has not started in a formal game since last March 6 when he was on Edmonton’s AHL farm team.

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After Saturday’s rematch, the Maple Leafs will have a four-day break before hosting the Vancouver Canucks for three consecutive games (Feb. 4, 6, and 8).

Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for analysis on this week’s top games. As well, the OddsShark Computer serves up daily NHL picks for bettors.