by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs seem to feel right at home in Winnipeg, although they face a rematch against a Jets team which will be able to empty the tank before a five-day break. The Maple Leafs are -145 favourites and the Winnipeg Jets are +125 home underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Maple Leafs are 4-0 in their last four away games against the Jets. Toronto is also 8-5 in its last 13 games as an away favourite at online betting sites, with the UNDER hitting in four of the last five such matchups. The Jets are 5-4 in their last nine games as a home underdog of +115 to +140, with the UNDER hitting five times.
Maple Leafs vs Jets | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Maple Leafs lead the season series 3-2-0 (with one overtime win), although the Jets have a 9-8 edge in five-on-five goals. Toronto has the best expected-goals percentage, or xGF%, of any North Division team against Winnipeg at 60.8, thanks in part to similar edges in shares of scoring chances (61.8) and high-danger chances (63.6), per Natural Stat Trick. Head-to-head, the Jets are four-for-16 on the power play and the Maple Leafs are two-for-12. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Maple Leafs are 23-10-3, including an 8-2-1 record in away games after one day of rest. The advanced stats in their win against Winnipeg suggest it was a comfortable 3-1 win. Toronto’s 71.6 xGF% was its second-best of the season, due in in large part to the Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitch Marner and John Tavares-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander lines. The Matthews line tallied both of the game’s five-on-five goals. One risk Maple Leafs backers would have to assume is that the club’s advanced stats have not been translating to the scoreboard, as Toronto’s five-on-five goals-for-percentage (51.2) is 16th in the 31-team NHL over the last 30 days. Toronto’s power play is also in a one-for-32 drought.
Since March 3, Toronto ranks second in the NHL in xGF% (59.9) and is also second in scoring-chance share (60.5) and third in high-danger chances share (60.6). The Maple Leafs are 13th in goals (2.92 per game) and 15th in goals against (2.85). Their power play ranks 29th (9.1 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 30th (69.0).
First-choice goalie Jack Campbell, who is 7-0-0 with a 1.41 GAA and .948 save percentage, allowed zero even-strength goals on Wednesday but has a lingering lower-body ailment that affects his fitness to start consecutive games. Backup Michael Hutchinson is 3-2-1 with a 2.49 GAA and .915 save percentage.
The Jets are 22-13-2, but are only 6-4-1 in home games with a single day of rest. A COVID19-related cancellation means the Jets are off after this one until April 8, so the members of the Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Nikolaj Ehlers and Pierre-Luc Dubois-Paul Stastny-Blake Wheeler lines might get some extra ice time. On Wednesday, the Jets were under 30 percent in xGF% for the sixth time this season. They are 4-1 in the next game after that happens, but all four wins were over sub-.500 teams. That said, the Jets are outplaying projections to the count of being 12th (53.5) in goals-for percentage since March 3, and their special teams are sounder than Toronto’s these days.
Over the last 30 days, Winnipeg ranks 21st in xGF% (47.0), 23rd in scoring-chance share (46.1) and 20th in high-danger chances share (47.0). The Jets are third in goals (3.07 per game) and 18th in goals against (2.87). In the past month, Winnipeg has the No. 1 power play (30.8 percent), but their penalty killing ranks 16th (82.4).
Connor Hellebuyck has a 17-10-2 record with a 2.59 GAA and .917 save percentage. The Jets’ No. 1 goalie has faced Toronto four times this season, with a 1-2-1 record, 3.03 GAA and .914 save percentage.