Jets vs Maple Leafs 03/09/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

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by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

The Toronto Maple Leafs were solid chalk the last time they had three games in a row against the team directly below them in the standings, which might spark confidence they can break a two-game skid. The Maple Leafs are -180 favourites and the Winnipeg Jets are +160 underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Maple Leafs are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Jets and four of the last six matchups have finished UNDER at betting sites. They are 14-6 in their last 20 home games with the total staying UNDER 13 times, as well as 6-1 in their last games as a home favourite of -160 to -210 on the moneyline. The Jets are 6-10 in their last 16 games as an underdog on the road, but they are 5-5 in their last 10 games as a +150 to +175 away underdog.

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Jets vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report

Toronto has generated the bulk of the offensive activity in the last three matchups since Jan. 1, 2020 as reflected by big edges in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (64.1), scoring-changes percentage (61.1) and high-danger chances share (73.5), per Natural Stat Trick. (All advanced stats include score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.) Toronto is two-for-seven on power plays and Winnipeg’s is one-for-eight in that span.

The Jets are 15-8-1, although they are coming off a rare blowout loss with a 7-1 road loss against the Montreal Canadiens last Saturday. The main red flag about Jets’ upset chances is a league-worst rate of high-danger chances allowed, which means they will need standout goaltending and big nights out of either or both the Mark Scheifele-Paul Stastny-Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois-Kyle Connor-Nikolaj Ehlers lines. It is not clear how much effect either team’s potent power play will have on the totals, since the Jets spend the fifth-fewest minutes per game killing penalties and Toronto spends the eighth-fewest in the NHL.

Winnipeg ranks 24th in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (48.2), 28th in xGF% (45.7) and 31st in high-danger chances share (42.8). The Jets are sixth in goal scoring (3.29 per game) and 14th in goals against (2.83). Their power play ranks 12th (23.6 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 21st (77.1).

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Connor Hellebuyck has an 11-7-1 record with a 2.73 goals-against average and .911 save percentage. Hellebuyck is 3-4-1 with a 3.24 GAA and .901 save percentage in eight career games against Toronto.

Toronto is 18-6-2, although the entire first line of Auston Matthews (five games), Mitch Marner (four) and Joe Thornton (six) are on goal droughts. But last week’s consecutive losses against the Vancouver Canucks – after a one-sided three-game sweep of the Edmonton Oilers – raised questions about a slump, but an upshot to Toronto backers is that the results seemed due more to puck luck than foundational problems in Toronto’s five-on-five game. Nine of Toronto’s last 16 goals have actually come from their third and fourth lines; the “ZIP line” of center Pierre Engvall and wings Zach Hyman and Ilya Mikheyev have another favourable matchup against the Jets’ struggling defense.

Toronto ranks 11th in shots-for percentage (50.8), eighth in xGF% (53.1) and ninth in high-danger chances share (52.7). The Maple Leafs are second in goal scoring (3.46 per game) and fifth in goals against (2.42). Their power play ranks first (31.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 23rd (77.3).

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Frederik Andersen has a 12-4-2 record, 2.68 GAA and .906 save percentage. Andersen has thrived in his career against Winnipeg with a 10-0-2 record, 2.70 GAA and .914 save percentage in 13 games.

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