Things are getting tight in the bubble. After racing out to a 2-0 series lead against Toronto, Boston now finds itself all squared at 2-2 heading into a pivotal Game 5 on Monday evening. We’ve got a similar situation out West, where the Nuggets rebounded from an embarrassing loss on Thursday to take down the Clippers by a score of 110-101 on Saturday.
Let’s break down everything you need to know from a DFS perspective for tonight’s two-game slate position-by-position.
Kemba Walker, BOS at TOR, $8,000 – Let’s start things off with a variance play. Walker has been soundly outplayed and outscored in DFS by Kyle Lowry ($8,200) in his past two games and, with the pair’s salaries as close as they are, it’s easy to project the six-time All-Star as the more popular asset. Still, I think Walker’s in for a big night. Both he and Brad Stevens were emphatic that he needed to be more involved after Walker was limited to just nine field-goal attempts in Game 4. Look for the 30-year-old to come out aggressive.
Lou Williams, LAC at DEN, $5,800 – Unless you want to take a chance with Patrick Beverley ($3,700) on a minutes restriction, there’s really no one to take too seriously at point guard below $5K on this slate. That means Williams is as cheap as it gets and, honestly, I don’t use the term “cheap” lightly. This is the first time in five games that Williams possesses a price tag below $6K, which is always enticing when talking about a player with the veteran’s lofty ceiling. Coming off 16 field goal attempts and 32.0 DKFP in Game 2, Williams is a nice target in the mid-tier range.
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Fred VanVleet, TOR vs. BOS, $7,800 – I don’t want to undersell how important VanVleet is to the overall success of the Raptors but, from a DFS perspective, his value is quite easy to explain. If you’re hunting volume, VanVleet’s your guy. Consider that the undrafted guard has shot just 32.9% (26-for-79) from the field in Toronto’s series against Boston, yet’s he’s still managed to average 38.9 DKFP per contest. Basically, if he starts shooting better his ceiling is incredible; but even if he doesn’t, he’ll log 40-plus minutes and have an insanely high floor. Pretty good range of outcomes, right?
Gary Harris, DEN vs. LAC, $4,100 – There were a lot of positives to take from Harris’ performance in Game 2. First and foremost: He managed to play 29 minutes. That’s easily the most Harris we’ve seen since the restart and it suggests that the 25-year-old might be able to clear the 30-minute plateau on Monday. His upside isn’t anything to write home about but on a slate with so few obvious value options, I’ll take that kind of role at just over $4K — especially after Harris nailed four three-pointers on Saturday.
Kawhi Leonard, LAC at DEN, $10,300 – Leonard is the lone player on this slate priced above $10K and that distinction comes with good reason. To wit, the reigning Finals MVP had an absolutely terrible shooting performance in Saturday’s loss — making just four of his 17 field goal attempts — yet, at the end of the day, Leonard finished 45.0 DKFP thanks to 10 rebounds and eight assists. While the pace in this second-round series is much slower than what Los Angeles saw against Dallas, we’re still evaluating a man who averaged 59.3 DKFP versus the Mavericks. He’s very, very good.
Marcus Morris, LAC at DEN, $5,100 – In terms of playoff games where he wasn’t ejected, Saturday was the worst DFS showing we’ve seen from Morris in the bubble. In general, he’s logged heavy minutes for Los Angeles while being a dependable secondary scoring option behind Leonard. Again, some of his early success was buoyed by Dallas’ pace and awful defense but Morris has registered at least 29.0 DKFP in five of the Clippers’ past eight contests. That’s a lot of potential at slightly above $5K.
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Pascal Siakam, TOR vs. BOS, $8,100 – This is an interesting case of perception versus facts. There’s no question that, from a real-life perspective, Siakam has had a pretty awful start to this series against the Celtics. However, he’s still managed to average 39.2 DKFP in the Raptors’ past three games. For the sake of comparison, Jayson Tatum ($9,300) is averaging 44.3 DKFP across the same span. That difference doesn’t seem to warrant their massive price discrepancy, does it? Siakam looked the most comfortable he has in weeks in Toronto’s Game 4 victory and, if he can avoid foul trouble, he’s also a lock to play 40-plus minutes. This is a nice buying window.
JaMychal Green, LAC at DEN, $3,600 – You don’t ever want to fall in love with a two-game sample but I think it’s pretty clear from a roster construction standpoint that Green has better matchups in a series with Denver than a series with Dallas — especially following the injury to Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavericks were smaller and Doc Rivers, understandably, relied more on his guard depth. However, after not logging 20 minutes in any of Los Angeles’ six contests against Dallas, Green’s done it in both games with the Nuggets. I doubt he’ll record a second-straight double-double but he doesn’t need to at this price.
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. LAC, $9,700 – I mean, who else are you going to spend up on at center? Jokic is the lone player at his position priced above even $6K, leaving no other choice if you’re looking to spend some dough on a big man. Yes, the Serbian is technically listed as questionable to suit up on Monday with a wrist issue but I’d be shocked if Jokic is unavailable. In short, he’s coming off a dominant Game 2 performance and he’s averaging 1.25 DKFP per minute in the playoffs. You’ll want a little exposure if you’re using multiple builds.
Robert Williams, BOS at TOR, $3,800 – Williams is averaging 1.07 DKFP per minute played in this series against Toronto, which is quite a bit more than his teammate Daniel Theis ($5,400) — especially when you discount the German’s huge Game 1 performance. The Celtics have also outscored the Raptors by nine points in the 65 minutes Williams has already logged in the first four contests, which might mean a bigger role for the sophomore with Boston reeling after two-straight losses.
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