by OddsShark (@OddsShark | https://twitter.com/oddsshark)
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ struggle as a playoff home favorite and the Auston Matthews line’s scoring drought are two reasons to fade them in a do-or-done Game 7 where they have little value on the moneyline anyway, but can still survive and advance. The Maple Leafs are -190 favorites and the Montreal Canadiens are +165 underdogs with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).
The Maple Leafs are 0-6 in their last six playoff games when they had a chance to eliminate their opponent. Toronto is 2-6 in its last eight playoff games as a favorite at home, with another 4-4 OVER/UNDER split at betting sites. Montreal is 5-4 in its last nine playoff games as an underdog on the road, with the UNDER hitting five times with one PUSH. The Maple Leafs are, however, 9-4 in their last 13 games as a favorite at home against the Canadiens, with a 6-6-1 OVER/UNDER split.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
The away teams are 4-2 in the series, and the total has gone UNDER in four of the six games. Toronto has outscored Montreal 12-8 in the five-on-five phase, earning a 59.1 goals-for percentage and a matching 59.1 expected-goals percentage, according to Natural Stat Trick. On the power play, the Canadiens are two-for-18 (11.1) and the Maple Leafs are three-for-21 (14.3) during the series. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Canadiens have both started and finished the past two games better than the Maple Leafs, building multi-goal leads before eventually winning in overtime. All three players on the Nick Suzuki-Tyler Toffoli-Cole Caufield second line, who had an xGF% of over 66 percent during the series-tying win on Saturday, are worth considering in anytime scorer props. The Phillip Danault-Jake Evans-Brendan Gallagher line will be about shutdown checking first, second and third. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Saturday’s overtime goal scorer, also led Montreal in expected goals in that contest.
Montreal is 10-13 this season in away games with one day of rest. Those matchups have had an average total of 5.52 goals (2.70 for, 2.83 against). Carey Price is third in the NHL playoffs with 5.9 goals saved above expected, according to MoneyPuck. Price has a 2.44 goals-against average and .926 save percentage in the series.
With the Maple Leafs, bettors will have to decide whether the Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitch Marner line is due to break a scoring outage. Toronto’s first line has a 68.2 xGF% in the series, according to MoneyPuck, but has scored just two goals on a combined 68 shots (a 2.9 shooting percentage, a fraction of the trio’s 15.8 in the regular season). Toronto has also lacked a proficient second line in the absence of John Tavares (concussion/knee), as the Nick Foligno-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander line had a 40.5 xGF% on Saturday. On the back end, Toronto’s second and third defense pairings could be tweaked if Jake Muzzin (groin) is unable to play.
Toronto is 12-7 this season in home games with one day of rest. Those matchups have had an average total of 5.58 goals (3.05 goals for, 2.53 against).
Jack Campbell is fourth in the NHL with 3.8 goals saved above expected, and has a 1.77 GAA and .937 save percentage in the series.